season 2026–27

Prediction accuracy

1252
Games scored
54.8%
Winner accuracy
0.247
Brier score
0.687
Log loss
2.14
MOV abs error

Rolling 20-game winner accuracy

Table view
DateRolling accuracy
2025-10-16100.0%
2025-10-1650.0%
2025-10-1633.3%
2025-10-1625.0%
2025-10-1620.0%
2025-10-1633.3%
2025-10-1628.6%
2025-10-1637.5%
2025-10-1633.3%
2025-10-1640.0%
2025-10-1645.5%
2025-10-1750.0%
2025-10-1753.8%
2025-10-1757.1%
2025-10-1753.3%
2025-10-1856.2%
2025-10-1858.8%
2025-10-1861.1%
2025-10-1857.9%
2025-10-1860.0%
2025-10-1860.0%
2025-10-1860.0%
2025-10-1860.0%
2025-10-1860.0%
2025-10-1865.0%
2025-10-1865.0%
2025-10-1870.0%
2025-10-1870.0%
2025-10-1970.0%
2025-10-1970.0%
2025-10-1965.0%
2025-10-1965.0%
2025-10-2065.0%
2025-10-2060.0%
2025-10-2060.0%
2025-10-2060.0%
2025-10-2060.0%
2025-10-2155.0%
2025-10-2160.0%
2025-10-2155.0%
2025-10-2155.0%
2025-10-2160.0%
2025-10-2160.0%
2025-10-2165.0%
2025-10-2160.0%
2025-10-2155.0%
2025-10-2155.0%
2025-10-2255.0%
2025-10-2255.0%
2025-10-2255.0%
2025-10-2360.0%
2025-10-2355.0%
2025-10-2350.0%
2025-10-2350.0%
2025-10-2355.0%
2025-10-2355.0%
2025-10-2355.0%
2025-10-2360.0%
2025-10-2360.0%
2025-10-2365.0%
2025-10-2360.0%
2025-10-2360.0%
2025-10-2460.0%
2025-10-2460.0%
2025-10-2465.0%
2025-10-2465.0%
2025-10-2565.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2565.0%
2025-10-2565.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2560.0%
2025-10-2555.0%
2025-10-2550.0%
2025-10-2550.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2645.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2650.0%
2025-10-2750.0%
2025-10-2755.0%
2025-10-2855.0%
2025-10-2855.0%
2025-10-2855.0%
2025-10-2855.0%
2025-10-2855.0%
2025-10-2860.0%
2025-10-2860.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2860.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2870.0%
2025-10-2870.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2865.0%
2025-10-2965.0%
2025-10-3065.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3065.0%
2025-10-3070.0%
2025-10-3065.0%
2025-10-3065.0%
2025-10-3060.0%
2025-10-3160.0%
2025-10-3155.0%
2025-10-3160.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0165.0%
2025-11-0160.0%
2025-11-0155.0%
2025-11-0150.0%
2025-11-0150.0%
2025-11-0145.0%
2025-11-0150.0%
2025-11-0150.0%
2025-11-0245.0%
2025-11-0250.0%
2025-11-0245.0%
2025-11-0250.0%
2025-11-0250.0%
2025-11-0355.0%
2025-11-0355.0%
2025-11-0350.0%
2025-11-0350.0%
2025-11-0445.0%
2025-11-0445.0%
2025-11-0440.0%
2025-11-0435.0%
2025-11-0440.0%
2025-11-0445.0%
2025-11-0450.0%
2025-11-0450.0%
2025-11-0455.0%
2025-11-0455.0%
2025-11-0560.0%
2025-11-0565.0%
2025-11-0565.0%
2025-11-0565.0%
2025-11-0560.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0660.0%
2025-11-0660.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0665.0%
2025-11-0760.0%
2025-11-0755.0%
2025-11-0750.0%
2025-11-0750.0%
2025-11-0850.0%
2025-11-0845.0%
2025-11-0840.0%
2025-11-0835.0%
2025-11-0835.0%
2025-11-0840.0%
2025-11-0840.0%
2025-11-0840.0%
2025-11-0840.0%
2025-11-0835.0%
2025-11-0835.0%
2025-11-0830.0%
2025-11-0835.0%
2025-11-0935.0%
2025-11-0935.0%
2025-11-0935.0%
2025-11-0940.0%
2025-11-0945.0%
2025-11-0950.0%
2025-11-0950.0%
2025-11-0950.0%
2025-11-1050.0%
2025-11-1055.0%
2025-11-1060.0%
2025-11-1055.0%
2025-11-1155.0%
2025-11-1155.0%
2025-11-1150.0%
2025-11-1150.0%
2025-11-1155.0%
2025-11-1150.0%
2025-11-1155.0%
2025-11-1150.0%
2025-11-1150.0%
2025-11-1250.0%
2025-11-1250.0%
2025-11-1250.0%
2025-11-1245.0%
2025-11-1340.0%
2025-11-1335.0%
2025-11-1335.0%
2025-11-1340.0%
2025-11-1340.0%
2025-11-1340.0%
2025-11-1345.0%
2025-11-1345.0%
2025-11-1345.0%
2025-11-1350.0%
2025-11-1450.0%
2025-11-1450.0%
2025-11-1450.0%
2025-11-1445.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1550.0%
2025-11-1550.0%
2025-11-1550.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1545.0%
2025-11-1540.0%
2025-11-1540.0%
2025-11-1535.0%
2025-11-1535.0%
2025-11-1635.0%
2025-11-1635.0%
2025-11-1635.0%
2025-11-1635.0%
2025-11-1635.0%
2025-11-1735.0%
2025-11-1740.0%
2025-11-1745.0%
2025-11-1745.0%
2025-11-1750.0%
2025-11-1755.0%
2025-11-1860.0%
2025-11-1865.0%
2025-11-1870.0%
2025-11-1870.0%
2025-11-1870.0%
2025-11-1875.0%
2025-11-1875.0%
2025-11-1880.0%
2025-11-1980.0%
2025-11-1975.0%
2025-11-1980.0%
2025-11-1980.0%
2025-11-2080.0%
2025-11-2075.0%
2025-11-2075.0%
2025-11-2075.0%
2025-11-2075.0%
2025-11-2075.0%
2025-11-2070.0%
2025-11-2070.0%
2025-11-2065.0%
2025-11-2060.0%
2025-11-2055.0%
2025-11-2060.0%
2025-11-2160.0%
2025-11-2155.0%
2025-11-2150.0%
2025-11-2145.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2240.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2240.0%
2025-11-2240.0%
2025-11-2240.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2245.0%
2025-11-2350.0%
2025-11-2350.0%
2025-11-2355.0%
2025-11-2355.0%
2025-11-2355.0%
2025-11-2355.0%
2025-11-2460.0%
2025-11-2465.0%
2025-11-2465.0%
2025-11-2470.0%
2025-11-2465.0%
2025-11-2470.0%
2025-11-2470.0%
2025-11-2570.0%
2025-11-2670.0%
2025-11-2675.0%
2025-11-2670.0%
2025-11-2670.0%
2025-11-2665.0%
2025-11-2665.0%
2025-11-2665.0%
2025-11-2665.0%
2025-11-2660.0%
2025-11-2655.0%
2025-11-2655.0%
2025-11-2655.0%
2025-11-2650.0%
2025-11-2645.0%
2025-11-2640.0%
2025-11-2835.0%
2025-11-2835.0%
2025-11-2830.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2825.0%
2025-11-2830.0%
2025-11-2830.0%
2025-11-2830.0%
2025-11-2835.0%
2025-11-2840.0%
2025-11-2845.0%
2025-11-2945.0%
2025-11-2950.0%
2025-11-2950.0%
2025-11-2955.0%
2025-11-2955.0%
2025-11-2955.0%
2025-11-2960.0%
2025-11-2965.0%
2025-11-2965.0%
2025-11-2970.0%
2025-11-2975.0%
2025-11-3070.0%
2025-11-3070.0%
2025-11-3070.0%
2025-11-3070.0%
2025-12-0165.0%
2025-12-0160.0%
2025-12-0160.0%
2025-12-0155.0%
2025-12-0155.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0260.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0250.0%
2025-12-0255.0%
2025-12-0250.0%
2025-12-0345.0%
2025-12-0345.0%
2025-12-0350.0%
2025-12-0345.0%
2025-12-0345.0%
2025-12-0450.0%
2025-12-0450.0%
2025-12-0445.0%
2025-12-0445.0%
2025-12-0445.0%
2025-12-0440.0%
2025-12-0435.0%
2025-12-0435.0%
2025-12-0440.0%
2025-12-0440.0%
2025-12-0540.0%
2025-12-0540.0%
2025-12-0545.0%
2025-12-0540.0%
2025-12-0545.0%
2025-12-0650.0%
2025-12-0655.0%
2025-12-0655.0%
2025-12-0655.0%
2025-12-0650.0%
2025-12-0645.0%
2025-12-0650.0%
2025-12-0655.0%
2025-12-0660.0%
2025-12-0660.0%
2025-12-0665.0%
2025-12-0665.0%
2025-12-0765.0%
2025-12-0765.0%
2025-12-0765.0%
2025-12-0770.0%
2025-12-0765.0%
2025-12-0765.0%
2025-12-0770.0%
2025-12-0770.0%
2025-12-0865.0%
2025-12-0860.0%
2025-12-0860.0%
2025-12-0865.0%
2025-12-0865.0%
2025-12-0970.0%
2025-12-0965.0%
2025-12-0965.0%
2025-12-0965.0%
2025-12-0960.0%
2025-12-0960.0%
2025-12-0960.0%
2025-12-0955.0%
2025-12-0950.0%
2025-12-0950.0%
2025-12-1045.0%
2025-12-1045.0%
2025-12-1040.0%
2025-12-1040.0%
2025-12-1135.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1145.0%
2025-12-1145.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1135.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1140.0%
2025-12-1245.0%
2025-12-1250.0%
2025-12-1355.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1365.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1355.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1360.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1455.0%
2025-12-1550.0%
2025-12-1550.0%
2025-12-1550.0%
2025-12-1555.0%
2025-12-1555.0%
2025-12-1660.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1670.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1665.0%
2025-12-1670.0%
2025-12-1675.0%
2025-12-1780.0%
2025-12-1775.0%
2025-12-1770.0%
2025-12-1775.0%
2025-12-1770.0%
2025-12-1870.0%
2025-12-1870.0%
2025-12-1865.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1860.0%
2025-12-1855.0%
2025-12-1960.0%
2025-12-1960.0%
2025-12-1960.0%
2025-12-1955.0%
2025-12-1950.0%
2025-12-2045.0%
2025-12-2045.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2055.0%
2025-12-2055.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2055.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2050.0%
2025-12-2045.0%
2025-12-2145.0%
2025-12-2150.0%
2025-12-2150.0%
2025-12-2150.0%
2025-12-2150.0%
2025-12-2150.0%
2025-12-2155.0%
2025-12-2160.0%
2025-12-2160.0%
2025-12-2260.0%
2025-12-2260.0%
2025-12-2255.0%
2025-12-2255.0%
2025-12-2360.0%
2025-12-2365.0%
2025-12-2360.0%
2025-12-2360.0%
2025-12-2355.0%
2025-12-2355.0%
2025-12-2355.0%
2025-12-2350.0%
2025-12-2345.0%
2025-12-2345.0%
2025-12-2350.0%
2025-12-2350.0%
2025-12-2350.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2745.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2755.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2745.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2755.0%
2025-12-2755.0%
2025-12-2750.0%
2025-12-2855.0%
2025-12-2860.0%
2025-12-2865.0%
2025-12-2865.0%
2025-12-2865.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-2970.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-2970.0%
2025-12-2970.0%
2025-12-2970.0%
2025-12-2970.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-2965.0%
2025-12-3065.0%
2025-12-3060.0%
2025-12-3065.0%
2025-12-3065.0%
2025-12-3060.0%
2025-12-3160.0%
2025-12-3155.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3150.0%
2025-12-3145.0%
2026-01-0145.0%
2026-01-0140.0%
2026-01-0145.0%
2026-01-0150.0%
2026-01-0150.0%
2026-01-0150.0%
2026-01-0150.0%
2026-01-0145.0%
2026-01-0245.0%
2026-01-0245.0%
2026-01-0240.0%
2026-01-0240.0%
2026-01-0340.0%
2026-01-0340.0%
2026-01-0335.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0335.0%
2026-01-0335.0%
2026-01-0335.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0330.0%
2026-01-0425.0%
2026-01-0430.0%
2026-01-0430.0%
2026-01-0430.0%
2026-01-0430.0%
2026-01-0535.0%
2026-01-0540.0%
2026-01-0545.0%
2026-01-0540.0%
2026-01-0545.0%
2026-01-0650.0%
2026-01-0650.0%
2026-01-0650.0%
2026-01-0650.0%
2026-01-0650.0%
2026-01-0655.0%
2026-01-0660.0%
2026-01-0660.0%
2026-01-0655.0%
2026-01-0660.0%
2026-01-0760.0%
2026-01-0760.0%
2026-01-0765.0%
2026-01-0770.0%
2026-01-0770.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0875.0%
2026-01-0870.0%
2026-01-0975.0%
2026-01-0975.0%
2026-01-0975.0%
2026-01-1080.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1080.0%
2026-01-1080.0%
2026-01-1080.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1080.0%
2026-01-1075.0%
2026-01-1070.0%
2026-01-1065.0%
2026-01-1065.0%
2026-01-1160.0%
2026-01-1160.0%
2026-01-1160.0%
2026-01-1155.0%
2026-01-1155.0%
2026-01-1250.0%
2026-01-1245.0%
2026-01-1250.0%
2026-01-1250.0%
2026-01-1250.0%
2026-01-1245.0%
2026-01-1240.0%
2026-01-1235.0%
2026-01-1235.0%
2026-01-1335.0%
2026-01-1335.0%
2026-01-1340.0%
2026-01-1345.0%
2026-01-1345.0%
2026-01-1340.0%
2026-01-1340.0%
2026-01-1340.0%
2026-01-1345.0%
2026-01-1350.0%
2026-01-1455.0%
2026-01-1460.0%
2026-01-1465.0%
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2026-01-1565.0%
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2026-01-1570.0%
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2026-01-1945.0%
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2026-01-1945.0%
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2026-01-2055.0%
2026-01-2060.0%
2026-01-2065.0%
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2026-01-2165.0%
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2026-01-2835.0%
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2026-01-2945.0%
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2026-01-3165.0%
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2026-01-3170.0%
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2026-01-3165.0%
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2026-01-3165.0%
2026-01-3160.0%
2026-01-3160.0%
2026-01-3155.0%
2026-01-3150.0%
2026-01-3145.0%
2026-01-3145.0%
2026-02-0145.0%
2026-02-0145.0%
2026-02-0150.0%
2026-02-0250.0%
2026-02-0245.0%
2026-02-0245.0%
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2026-02-0250.0%
2026-02-0250.0%
2026-02-0255.0%
2026-02-0250.0%
2026-02-0255.0%
2026-02-0255.0%
2026-02-0350.0%
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2026-02-0360.0%
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2026-02-0465.0%
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2026-02-0470.0%
2026-02-0475.0%
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2026-02-0465.0%
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2026-02-2855.0%
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2026-02-2865.0%
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2026-03-0165.0%
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2026-03-0455.0%
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2026-03-0655.0%
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2026-03-0735.0%
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2026-03-1045.0%
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2026-03-1250.0%
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2026-03-1245.0%
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2026-03-1240.0%
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2026-03-1550.0%
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2026-03-1665.0%
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2026-03-1860.0%
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2026-03-1955.0%
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2026-03-1960.0%
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2026-03-1955.0%
2026-03-1950.0%
2026-03-2055.0%
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2026-03-2145.0%
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2026-03-2250.0%
2026-03-2255.0%
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2026-03-2260.0%
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2026-03-2245.0%
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2026-03-2555.0%
2026-03-2560.0%
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2026-03-2645.0%
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2026-03-2750.0%
2026-03-2755.0%
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2026-03-2860.0%
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2026-03-2855.0%
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2026-03-2865.0%
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2026-03-2860.0%
2026-03-2855.0%
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2026-03-2855.0%
2026-03-2950.0%
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2026-03-2950.0%
2026-03-2945.0%
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2026-03-2940.0%
2026-03-3035.0%
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2026-03-3140.0%
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2026-03-3135.0%
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2026-03-3145.0%
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2026-03-3150.0%
2026-04-0145.0%
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2026-04-0155.0%
2026-04-0255.0%
2026-04-0260.0%
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2026-04-0270.0%
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2026-04-0280.0%
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2026-04-0375.0%
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2026-04-0470.0%
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2026-04-0645.0%
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2026-04-0650.0%
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2026-04-0745.0%
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2026-04-0740.0%
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2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0750.0%
2026-04-0755.0%
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2026-04-0760.0%
2026-04-0755.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0860.0%
2026-04-0865.0%
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2026-04-0970.0%
2026-04-0965.0%
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2026-04-0970.0%
2026-04-0970.0%
2026-04-0975.0%
2026-04-0975.0%
2026-04-0975.0%
2026-04-0970.0%
2026-04-0970.0%
2026-04-1170.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1155.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1145.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1155.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1150.0%
2026-04-1145.0%
2026-04-1145.0%
2026-04-1245.0%
2026-04-1240.0%
2026-04-1235.0%
2026-04-1240.0%
2026-04-1235.0%
2026-04-1230.0%
2026-04-1335.0%
2026-04-1340.0%
2026-04-1340.0%
2026-04-1345.0%
2026-04-1345.0%
2026-04-1345.0%
2026-04-1345.0%
2026-04-1345.0%
2026-04-1350.0%
2026-04-1350.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1465.0%
2026-04-1465.0%
2026-04-1470.0%
2026-04-1475.0%
2026-04-1470.0%
2026-04-1470.0%
2026-04-1575.0%
2026-04-1570.0%
2026-04-1570.0%
2026-04-1575.0%
2026-04-1575.0%
2026-04-1580.0%
2026-04-1680.0%
2026-04-1680.0%
2026-04-1675.0%
2026-04-1670.0%
2026-04-1670.0%
2026-04-1670.0%

Calibration

Model home win %GamesPredicted avg Actual home win rateGap
0.00–0.4027 32.6% 40.7% +8.2pp
0.40–0.4566 42.9% 43.9% +1.1pp
0.45–0.50234 48.0% 46.6% -1.4pp
0.50–0.55472 52.6% 52.1% -0.5pp
0.55–0.60342 57.1% 56.4% -0.7pp
0.60–0.6585 61.9% 63.5% +1.7pp
0.65–1.0026 68.5% 57.7% -10.8pp

Well-calibrated buckets have small gaps. Persistent gaps in one direction suggest re-examining the win-probability conversion (the normal-CDF standard error).