Model

GSSM — goals scored/surrendered model, ported from the Excel workbook and validated against it (Solver coefficients reproduced to 7 decimals on 2024-25 data; the workbook's classification off-by-one is fixed here).

E[home MOV] = b₀ + b₁·GFH(home) + b₂·GAH(home) + b₃·GFA(away) + b₄·GAA(away)
P(home win) = P( N(E[MOV], SE) > 0 ),  SE = √(SSE / (n−2))

The model refits nightly on all final games of the season (minimum 60). Predictions are stored pre-game and scored out-of-sample as results arrive — the Accuracy page is the honest ledger the spreadsheet couldn't keep.